Super Bowl Lines – Current Trends for the Big Game

1st February, 2011 - Posted by writer - No Comments

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Superbowl prospects list the Packers as 2-point favorites vs the Steelers with the total at 44.5.



What do recent trends tell us about the odds for Green Bay and Pittsburgh vs the Superbowl wagering prospects at the online sports book?

Favorites Struggling
Several years ago the favorites did quite well in the Superbowl but since 1980 the favorites are just 19-11 straight up and a bad 12-16-2 vs the spread. The long shot has covered the last 3 Super Bowls, profitable two of the 3 straight up. The community really likes Green Bay in Superbowl XLV however the recent trends point to taking the long shot Steelers. The Packers are the tenth diverse National Football Conference squad to play in the Superbowl in the past ten years. The Packers are the 4th squad to win 3 consecutive road games and attain the Superbowl. 2 of the previous 3 won the Superbowl. The Packers are the first number six seed from the National Football Conference to make it to the Superbowl.

Point Totals
If Green Bay is presented to thirty points or fewer in the Superbowl they’re likely in danger. The last sixteen Superbowl favorites to score thirty points or fewer are 2-14-1 vs the spread. Let’s go one step further in terms of the profitable point total. If a squad doesn’t get to at least 21 points in the Superbowl they almost never win. If a squad doesn’t get to at least 21 points in the Superbowl they’re 1-20 straight up in the last 21 Super Bowls and a putrid 3-17-1 vs the point spread. Squads that get to 21 points or more have a pretty excellent chance of profitable. With both Pittsburgh and Green Bay having great defenses it looks pretty probably that whoever gets to 21 points will win and cover Superbowl XLV. Looking at the total, 5 of the last 6 Super Bowls have gone below the total in Superbowl prospects and if it weren’t for a late Pittsburgh Touchdown two years ago it would be 6 in a row. This season’s total of 44.5 is the lowest we have seen in the Superbowl since Superbowl XXXVIII.

National Football Conference Advantage
In the last 30 Super Bowls, the National Football Conference is 19-11 straight up and 18-10-2 ATS. It should be mentioned though that in the previous thirteen Super Bowls that the National Football Conference is just 4-9 SU and 6-6-1 ATS. And this is the first time in the last nine seasons that the National Football Conference is going to be favored in the Superbowl.


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